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The View from New York, By Ned GrothDoes America have a Nuclear Future?In the 1950s and ‘60s, American electric power companies, in love with “Our Friend the Atom,” built dozens of nuclear power plants. But safety and environmental standards grew stricter and construction costs escalated, and nuclear plants became too costly to build here; coal-, oil- and gas-burning plants were far cheaper. Public distrust of nuclear power after the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979, concerns about disposal of nuclear wastes, and poor economics combined to make nuclear non-viable. No new nuclear plants have been built in the US for 35 years. That may be about to change. With global warming now high on the political agenda, America is taking a second look at nuclear power. Today’s nuclear plant designs are more efficient, safer, and economically more competitive. The disposal issue could be avoided by just storing wastes on site, hoping that someday they can be safely reprocessed into fuel. Driven by a need to reduce CO2 emissions, electric utilities are pursuing licenses to build about 30 new nukes, though none are under construction yet. How many get built will depend on market forces and on politics. As the Obama administration tries to build the “new energy economy,” several possible solutions to CO2 emissions will be jockeying for position. Some experts feel simple, often inexpensive conservation measures can buy time for green technologies like solar, wind, and geothermal to develop capacity to satisfy future demand. Others believe that nuclear, an available and proven technology, will provide an essential “bridge” to the green energy future. Opinion polls show that about 30 percent of Americans still distrust nuclear power and, even in the context of fighting global warming, don’t support its expanded use. Waste issues remain knotty, and nuclear plants are seen as attractive targets for terrorism. “Not in My Back Yard” opposition and huge construction costs may slow or even prevent the building of many plants. But neither American consumers nor the companies selling them electricity seem likely to have much appetite for brownouts and power shortages. If green power is slow to develop, a few nuclear plants may be needed to meet growing demand. In the long run, though, the future of nuclear power here remains uncertain. We don’t know how much we can reduce demand through conservation, nor how rapidly innovative alternative power sources can be developed. For the first time, we have a national government that is pursuing such solutions seriously. So, is America entering a new nuclear age? Will we skip the nuclear phase and move directly to the “green technologies”? Or will we be too slow to innovate, reject nuclear politically, and fall back, like sinners into temptation, on our vast supplies of coal? The roadmaps to our energy future will begin to appear in coming months, as the Obama energy team develops its policies and strategies. It should be an exciting time. My next few columns will explore other facets of America’s emerging energy futures. That’s my view from here in New York. Feel free to respond to this column at info@schuttelaar.nl. For more information: Fortune – The power generation gap |
Ned Groth |
